The Cincinnati Reds are in a bit of a funk right now, with a 3-7 record in their last ten games and a 33-36 overall standing that puts them in last place in the NL Central. It's not just the losses that are concerning, but the overall performance of the team, which has been underwhelming across the board. The pitching staff, the offense, and the bullpen have all struggled, with the team's rotation, bullpen, and lineup all ranking in the bottom 10 in the league by fWAR. This is where the health of Hunter Greene comes into play. Greene, a former No. 2 overall pick, has been out since March due to surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow. He's been placed on the 60-day injured list, but the plan is for him to return before the All-Star break. Assuming he requires four rehab starts, Greene could be back for the June 7-9 series against the Phillies or the June 10-12 series against the Cubs. This would mark his second start after the All-Star break.
In the meantime, the Reds have been relying on Chase Burns, another former top pick, who has stepped up admirably. Burns has a 2.14 ERA and a 29.6% strikeout rate in 75 2/3 innings, ranking fourth among qualified starters for ERA and third for strikeout rate, just ahead of NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. However, the rest of the rotation is a mixed bag. Andrew Abbott has a decent 4.10 ERA, but Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo are below replacement level. Rhett Lowder is just okay. Greene's return will help the group overall, shifting those three lower in the pecking order.
The bullpen is also in flux, with a couple of arms on the mend. Pierce Johnson, who came to the Reds on a one-year deal, had a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings before going down with right elbow inflammation. He's expected to return soon, and his 4.01 SIERA paints him as a middle reliever. Emilio Pagán, out since May 6th with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, is expected to return in early July. He'll serve as the closer when he returns.
The offense has also been struggling, with Jose Trevino returning from the 10-day injured list after a month-long absence due to a left hamstring strain. P.J. Higgins was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Trevino. Meanwhile, Sam Haggerty has joined the organization on a minor league deal after being released by the Rangers. Haggerty has a 12 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances this year, and he's a reasonable, no-risk depth pickup.
In my opinion, the Reds' struggles are a result of a lack of depth and consistency across the board. The team needs to find a way to get more out of its rotation and bullpen, and the offense needs to find its stride. The return of Greene and the other injured players will help, but the Reds need to make some strategic moves to turn things around. Personally, I think they need to focus on improving their defense and finding a reliable closer. What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential for the Reds to turn things around and make a push for the playoffs. If they can get their pitching staff and bullpen in order, they could be a force to be reckoned with. In my opinion, the Reds have the talent to turn things around, but it will take some strategic moves and a bit of luck.
